A Change of Seasons

A Change of Seasons

What a pleasant change the marine air flow has been, just in time for football season! And, of course planting fall wheat, county fairs, etc.

Let's take a look at some relevant news items:

2018 Farm Bill - The conferees are scheduled to meet September 5th, upon the House's return to DC. It is expected that this meeting will be all about speeches. Although the House has been out of town, the leaders have made sure communication and dialogue channels have remained open and productive.

2018 harvest price - This coming week will be the final week of our harvest price discovery period. The averages will not change significantly from where they are today, merely soften or strengthen based upon this week's market actions.









2019 projected price - With one full week completed, the discovery period is 1/3 complete. Down markets for the week have softened the price averages noted last week.







2019 production reporting - A reminder that all production reported for 2019 crop year and forward will require additional information. RMA now requires a code be entered as to the applicable record type(s): farm stored; sold/commercial storage; claim; appraisal; etc. Additionally, RMA now has put some teeth in failing to properly report production, an assigned yield could be 65% of the t-yield and loss of optional units. Insureds must also provide acceptable production evidence to support the information on their production report. Furthermore, the insured must provide the unit number or location of the production if the information is not listed on the production record. This isn't new, there is a greater degree of emphasis on production reporting.

Canola sales closing - This coming Friday, 8/31, is canola sales closing. This means that if you want to insure fall planted canola, it must be added to your policy by this date. Correspondingly, any entity changes must be completed by this date as well.

China - Discussions with China did not yield any agreements or continuation of dialogue. China has taken the position of wait and see, hoping the Administration is weakened by the mid-term election results. Truth be known, I don't foresee this president changing his position on trade due to election results. Perhaps the US could send the same trade negotiator/representative to the table each time they meet vs a new face/voice.

The news out of China continues to worsen regarding the African Swine Fever that has impacted a couple of provinces. This past week the 3rd and 4th outbreaks were identified, now being nearer large production areas in China - 14% of hog production in areas where outbreak has been identified. An additional 19% of production is in neighboring provinces. Curtailing further spread could be problematic, virtually all Chinese raise hogs in their backyards. It is estimated that China has a hog population of 430 million head herd, whereas the US has approximately 70 million head in comparison.

FSA Offices - Virtually all FSA office will be closed or skeleton crews this week as they receive training on the trade aid package the administration says will be available for signup September 4th.

Markets - Age old saying and theme the past 3 years has continued - big crops get bigger, the concluded Pro Farmer Tour confirmed some of USDA forecast from earlier this month. Fundamentals for corn and wheat are bullish and better than that for soybeans, compounded with South American growers to increase their bean acres this coming year. Will need some trade sales to move the record crop of beans that are coming. MN has had perfect weather the past couple of years and correspondingly record corn yields. The Pro Farmer tour found significant yield differences in IL and MN than what USDA forecast...

Wheat production across Europe and Black Sea region are down between 15-25%. Once harvest pressure is off, I believe we'll see the market react to this news as there's less quality milling wheat compared with last year.






178.4 bu/a

177.3 bu/a

174.99 bu/a


51.6 bu/a

53 bu/a

50.67 bu/a

Just in time for Labor Day grilling needs, there's plenty of protein available. The latest cattle on feed report suggest nearly half a million animals were added to feedlots since last year August. The 4.6% increase in inventory results in just over 11 million cattle in feedlots, the highest inventory for August since the report began in 1996.

Trade Aid - The Trump Administration was scheduled to release the gory details of the $12B ag package on Friday, but the OMB (Office of Management & Budget) hasn't released and now Monday is the expected release date of specifics. As a reminder, the sooner you report your production to your crop agent, the sooner we can provide the yield information FSA will need to process any payment.

Washington state Wolf pack - Fish and Wildlife officials have approved lethal action against the 'Togo Pack' of NE Washington, after several confirmed livestock kills in the area, three in the past 30 days and six since last November. Two activist groups have filed lawsuits and now a court ruling has temporarily halted the lethal removal. Additionally, there were determined to be four, new packs east of the Cascades. I wonder how the hiker in the Okanogan valley that was treed by wolves this summer feels about the ruling...

WOTUS Update - TX, LA and MS have asked a federal court in Texas to expedite its consideration for a nationwide injunction of the 2015 rule.....this is far from over.

Stay tuned...

Until next time...
“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” ~Vince Lombardi

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
Cell - 509.540.2632

Twitter Logo Blue3 @mcgregor_risk 

Office - 509.843.2599 // Fax - 509.843.2583


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