View from the Kitchen Table

I write this from the kitchen table of the home my bride grew up in, as harvest is beginning in the area. We'd hoped to leave the heat behind last week, but the temps here this weekend were 105. The walleye fishing was ok, certainly enough for 3 days of gorging myself.

On the crop harvest front, peas are mostly done with average yields (2800 lbs per acre). Initial reports for spring wheat suggest an average crop with decent quality - 62/63 lb test weight and protein average of over 14%, ranging from 13.5% to 15%. Corn and soybeans in this part of the state will not be contributing to any 'record national yields' as forecast by USDA latest report. Some bean fields are hanging on, many show drought stress, especially in the shallow soil areas of the field. Corn is also well advanced for early August, again, I see no record yields here...many growers agree and question USDA's yield forecast.

15 day notice - Just a reminder that the MP policy requires notice of loss w/in 15 days of the end of insurance. When does the end of insurance clock start to tick you ask? When harvest is completed on a unit...if it takes 3 weeks to complete fall wheat harvest, the first unit completed had the insurance expire during harvest - a week prior to finishing your fall wheat.

2018 harvest price discovery - This past Friday completed the 8th session (of 23 total) of the harvest price discovery for crops in our region. Until Friday, each close had been higher than the prior session...USDA report took the wind out of any market sail. I anticipate the markets will be sideways for the near term with continued harvest pressure.

2019 projected harvest price - Wednesday is the beginning for the 2019 projected prices, I'll post the early results in next week's update.

Chlorpyrifos ruling - A recent judge's ruling on a popular insect control...

Crop progress - Corn and soybean maturity rates are racing to the finish line. Report released last Monday shows a slip in conditions, but maturation well ahead of average for both crops. Corn is 57% dented, 20% ahead of the 5 year average. We'll soon learn if heat makes grain, like rain makes grain - Pro Farmer crop tour is scheduled for next week, August 20-24, 2018. Why is Missouri acreage not on a route? What about valid data of said tour?

CRP - A reminder that the deadline for program enrollment is fast approaching, Friday, August 17, 2018. Contact your local FSA office for more details.

Home property damage - Here's an article on the 5 most common causes of home property damage, the list may surprise you...

Starting a home fire in an attempt to collect insurance funds will get you three square for a spell...

Labeling - I had intended to share this video last week, but like all best made plans...for me, this brings everything full circle. Perhaps you're already one of the many who have viewed this video; if not, indulge yourself....click here for the video

Markets - USDA monthly report this past Friday put a wet blanket on any continued price rally of all three major grain markets - corn, beans and wheat. I suspect harvest pressure will continue for the short term. Thanks to much warmer than normal temperatures, the crop is much farther advanced than normal as noted above, the impact this might have on yield will show itself as corn harvest begins early next month.

Ukrainian Ag Ministry has proposed limiting milling quality wheat to 8 mmt for the 18/19 marketing year; this is 2 mmt less than exported last year (17/18). Australia is the tale of two weather patterns - Western Australia has had some moisture and the wheat crop is better, Eastern Australia has not had significant moisture and the crop conditions reflects such. Despite the two day slide in prices, wheat production is down from last year among the major exporters as is the availability of milling quality bushels.

Monthly USDA reports would lead us to believe that demand and usage is shrinking in spite of 200k additional mouths to feed...this story paints a slightly different picture, a looming calorie deficit...

Missouri crops are in a tough way...check out this story about single digit yields

MYA (Market Yield Price) - Apparently National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) has changed their procedure this year and will not release the MYA prices until the end of this month, August 29, 2018. The 2017/18 marketing year ended on May 31, 2018, and the price is currently estimated at $4.75. Previously, USDA had published the MYA price information on June 30th, when all the data was available to them. This delay is not expected to delay ARC/PLC payments to producers scheduled for early October.

Weather - The latest on US drought readings and short-term expected temperatures and precipitation...cooler temps and chance of rain will aid and help make bushels of beans and corn. Perhaps our friends in KS and MO will receive some much needed moisture and drought relief....looks like we were here a week too early, only to return home for more heat!

Until next time,

“If you are afraid of failure, you don’t deserve to be successful.”  ~Charles Barkley

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC

@mcgregor_risk

Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599

Posted in Risk Management; Posted August 15, 2018 by Curtis Evanenko