Heavy Weight Makes for Many Bushels At Market
I trust harvest is going well for those that are in the midst of and for those just starting or soon to be, I wish you the same bounty I've seen with other growers. Quality has been very good so far with strong yields - the heavy test weight is surprisingly grand as this makes for many bushels to send to market.
Good evening all,
An update on the home front, North Dakota - last weekend we had a neighbor and family friend stop through on his travels to report that they've received just 2" of rain since planting. Needless to say, the crops are not very good - Sam is hoping for a 20 bu/a durum crop and his corn 4' tall and starting to tassle...that will not make trend yield, hoping for silage so to provide feed for the cow/calf operation. More later on this past week's joke, called a wheat tour.
8/1 - yesterday was FSA's sign-up deadline for ARC/PLC participation for current crop year.
2017 Harvest Price - This week begins the discovery period for establishing the 2017 harvest price for our region's barley, fall canola and wheat. I will again provide weekly updates of that data becomes available.
2018 Fall Canola - The projected harvest price is nearly 50% complete and currently averaging $.175 per lb. Remember, sales closing for canola/rapeseed is 8/31.
Beef - The first fallout from President Trump pullout of the Trans Pacific Partnership, frozen beef sent to Japan has an increased tariff of 12.5% for a total import tax of 50%. The increased tariff lasts through the marketing year, April 2018. Japan is the top import customer of US beef, $1.6 billion in 2016.
Related and mentioned here previously, feeder prices continue to hit a ceiling at $150 mark, self-correcting to try and climb past again. Livestock Marketing Information Center is forecasting a 2% to 3% increase in beef production for the remainder of 2017, a 3% - 5% increase is the current forecast for 2018.
Boris has an ally - Last week a US surveillance plane was intercepted by Chinese fighter jets. Check it out...
Crop Insurance Testimony - This past week industry leaders met before Senate Ag Committee touting the benefits and need for a strong crop insurance safety net.
Distracted Driving - Last week state law in WA took effect that outlaws distracted driving and increases the fines for use of electronic devices, $136 first offense and $234 for second violation w/in 5 years. Insurance providers will then determine if the ticket is a minor traffic violation or more serious like DUI.
Fertilizer - All the major fertilizers were down again from the month prior, NH3 down 14%. Read more...
Markets - The annual spring wheat tour completed their estimates this past week arriving at an average of just over 38 bu/a, down 20% from last year and the lowest average since 2008. Who here remembers the price of spring wheat from that fall and winter? Unfortunately, the integrity and reliability of this tour may have taken significant strike - Eastern Montana was avoided, as were the acres in North Dakota that have been abandoned or hayed. Help me understand how you can offer an estimated yield w/o taking in to consideration all acres planted? 38 bu/a estimate is going to be high for planted acres, coupled with the continued degradation (Saskatchewan crops have declined each report since May 29, 2017) of the Canadian crop conditions, quality hard red spring wheat will be in strong demand.
The dollar has fallen to it's lowest level in nearly a year. This definitely assists our export sales pace for all products. Treasury market big short bet has been foiled by Fed policy statement.
Wheat exports have started this marketing year off very strong, up nearly 20% over this same period of a year prior. What's interesting to me is that the USDA has forecast an 8% decline this year over last year.
The Cloud - Now that we've migrated much to 'cloud' computing, a report suggesting such an attack could cost upwards of $53 Billion!
Theft - The National Insurance Crime Bureau has released their latest 'Top 10 most stolen rigs', I don't recall full-size pickups being such a hot commodity. Check out the list here...
Weather - Informa Economics has lowered the projected US '17 corn yield to 166 bu/a, '16 average was nearly 175 at 174.6 bu/a. The US remains dry in many areas, the cooler temperatures have eased the weather concern for corn yield currently. Weather concerns for soybeans will begin in about 10 days...and the beat goes on, and the beat goes on...
This week is predicted to be a scorcher, stay hydrated and be safe. Good luck with harvest.
“You’ve got to get up every morning with determination if you are going to go to bed with satisfaction.” ~George Horace Lorimer
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