Time Does Fly By...

Hello all,
Is this a sign of aging, in that the older we are the faster time seems to tick on by? Mom celebrated her 81st birthday this week, and remains in good health and spirits. If time goes by too fast, I may not see my Alma mater ever reach football prominence again. Perhaps the first game was a sign of the season to come - the weather won out, 0-2 and a tough road trip to the 'big house'. The silver lining is the exposure, all Husker games to date have been televised...until then, Go Cougs! Show those pesky Trojans that last year wasn't a fluke!

On a more serious note, best wishes and prayers to those impacted by hurricane Florence. The photos and news from the East Coast are gut-wrenching and heartbreaking and I'm certain the photos are but the tip of the iceberg. We live in a fabulous part of the country/world.

45 days - This is the amount of time allowed by the mp policy and RMA to turn in a possible revenue loss after the date RMA has announced harvest prices for the year. Harvest prices were announced on September 5, 2018. Any revenue losses for barley or wheat in our region must be turned in by mid-October...don't delay, notify today!

2019 projected harvest prices - On Wednesday, RMA announced the projected harvest prices for our region. As noted in the last update, the prices would stray far from their current, average values. I've also included the volatility factors, which are part of the premium calculation process; fall wheat factor is up (.18) and spring wheat is down, .18 and .30 respectively for 2018. This means that spring wheat will be less expensive to insure in 2019 than last year, whereas fall wheat will be more expensive, $.67 additional value per bushel doesn't hurt and contributes as well. We've done some preliminary estimates and the dollars of protection are awesome! Here's a summary of 2019 values:

China syndrome - African flu impacting swine herd across the country, 16 cases announced last week. Now, they've discovered a herd of cattle with foot and mouth disease. What's the next shoe to drop?

Farm Bill - The rhetoric is about nutrition title; however, there are four major differences between the House and Senate versions: commodity title, conservation title, energy title and of course nutrition. Read more...

Florence - I cannot imagine nor grasp the magnitude of the three and half million dead and drowned chickens...

Markets - Where to start? Our last update was prior to the latest USDA monthly report - they didn't disappoint with shock and awe, bearish numbers provided for all crops again. Private industry analysts are now wondering if USDA will ever walk back these numbers, realized or not. 181+ bu/a corn average, a record yield; almost 53 bu/a soybean yield; wheat stocks remain ample, as bushels are bushels remember? Harvest is underway in row crop country, corn results thus far are good, but mixed. Soybean planting has begun in Brazil under favorable conditions.

I'm optimistic by nature, maybe it's my upbringing on a farm in central ND, here's what's known about world wheat production:

1. Australia is very dry in the east, moist west but they've just endured overnight lows in the mid-20s during grain fill. Estimates of coming crop continue to contract below prior estimates of 20mmt, USDA didn't change;
2. Argentina is dry and this is impacting wheat growing region, not a major exporter, but do supply locally;
3. Canadian yields are disappointing to what was expected for harvest, northern Alberta has had a delay in harvest with 6" of snow;
4. EU grain estimates have been lowered again, down more than 10% from 2017 production, USDA didn't change;
5. Russian crop estimates drop weekly due to previously dry conditions, their lowest production in 3 years, now adverse harvest weather in Siberia delaying harvest. Russia is unable to export as much wheat as prior years, because they don't have it to send it...USDA raised production estimates for the coming year; meanwhile, Russian wheat export prices increased for the first time in 6 weeks.

Pulse crops...time and patience. Indian tariffs imposed last fall and surplus production this crop year are weighing heavily on all types.

Precision farming - When razor thin margins exist, means to add ROI do exist...technology isn't going away, use it towards your advantage. Approximately 25% of the tree nut industry is currently using aerial imagery for input management.

September 30 - Sales closing deadline for wheat and alfalfa seed. Any and all changes must be completed by this date.

Trade aid - Market Facilitation Program (MFP) is available and ongoing and available at your local FSA office until January.

Wolves: Part 3 - A second permit had been authorized in WA by state wildlife officials for a pack in Ferry county last week, that permit has been filled...Beef, it's what's for dinner...

"Energy and persistence conquer all things.”  ~Benjamin Franklin

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599
Fax - 509.843.2583

Posted in Risk Management; Posted September 20, 2018 by Curtis Evanenko