Blog » Harvest Price Discovery Updates
Harvest Price Discovery Updates
2019 harvest price discovery has ten sessions remaining, which means it's 55% complete and values will not change significantly. Thursday (8/15) also marked the start of the 2020 projected harvest period; this runs thru 9/15/19.
2019 Harvest Price Discovery
Both wheat types lost value during last week's trading. Hopefully this trend can
2020 Projected Harvest Price Discovery
Canola price for 2020 is official, RMA released the $.1650 this past week. It appears to me that the current price does not reflect the basis differential that is also part of the calculation. I've sent an inquiry regarding. For reference, 2019 basis differential was just under $1, at $.9925, this value is finalized for the crop year around September 1st.
* Discovery period for fall canola is complete, $.1650 is the announced price for 2020.
** It appears that the current average price posted by RMA does not reflect the 5yr CHI/PDX basis differential.
Speculation is swirling about the accident, corresponding explosion and fatalities of workers - ammo depot / nuke powered rocket...
Now, in an attempt to be transparent (sarcasm applied), the sensors have been turned off...hmmm
I caught an interview indicating 1400 square miles, or just under 900,00 acres, have been cleared to ready for production (soybeans). I'm sure this was planned and just a coincidence with the current US/China trade relations.
Burros and Horses
The projected growth of wild burros and horses is staggering. The damage impact on grazing land will take many years to recover from.
This ever increasing issue is beginning to impact each of us directly and indirectly...
Last week was rough throughout virtually all commodities and markets. The rout started in cattle after the reported Tyson plant fire in Kansas, this extended to corn and wheat after the latest USDA report, and then the equities thereafter...
China says their pig herd is 1/3 the size it was a year ago. The disease continues to spread in China and SE Asia. Like it or not, the reduction in animals has significantly contributed to the lack of soybeans sales - with or without a trade tiff. For perspective, he Chinese have lost more pigs than the entire population in the US.
Are you long or short this commodity?
DTN Digital Tour
As indicated in my last update, DTN concluded their 10 state tour of the corn belt and compiled some noteworthy data. Most notably, their estimated corn yield for the 2019 US corn crop is 163.2 bpa, which is 6.3 bpa lower than last week's USDA announcement. Their soybean estimated yield for the US is 44.2 bpa, 4.3 bpa lower than the USDA estimate.
Beginning today, the 26th annual corn and bean yield estimation tour begins. Thus far finding delayed crop needing 2-3 extra weeks of good weather to reach maturity as well insects, disease and weeds.
The actions of EPA, RFS waivers, and current trade issues are taking a toll on sales and prices, to their lowest level in nearly 5 years.
Couple that with the last set of 31 RFS waivers. Law of the land says any production waivers are to be reallocated - why are the gallons not being allocated?
Bond market is telling that changes need to be made.
Why does oil/gas prices increase after a refinery fire, yet cattle markets go limit down when a slaughter plant has a fire? Cattle slaughter is at 91%, the facility accounts for 5% of the weekly, 6k daily/30k weekly. Industry has remaining capacity even after the fire, albeit logistic challenges are now present. For you non-cattle producers, the financial impact was $100 per head. Kudos to Tyson who will continue to pay employees during the rebuild process, to keep labor available and ready.
There was expected to a large number of acres impacted by the excess moisture this spring; however, a record 19.2 million acres was not in the cards.
Wheat harvest is virtually complete with estimates at 27.9 mmt, compared to USDA 29.2 mmt estimation.
US Water Policy
A recent (2018) survey conducted by NASS will be soon released (November) on the Irrigation and Water Management. The results will influence and impact future water policy and legislation.
Nearly 50% of IA, IL and IN are abnormally dry according to the latest drought index.
Will the unseasonably cold air mass soon to hit the Prairies of Canada, significantly impact the northern tier of US states?