Baby It's Cold Outside?

...'Agriculture - is the most healthful, most useful and most noble employment of man.' ~George Washington

10/15 & 10/31 End of Insurance

Whether you're facing the 10/15 deadline for garbs or 10/31 deadline for small grains (barley, wheat), this fall has been one to remember or forget depending on your perspective. To say the least, it has been stressful. As an industry, we had hoped that RMA would have provided some insight, interpretation and guidance on policy language by now. Unfortunately, nothing concrete has been provided to date. Yes, I completely agree this is frustrating - not having definite answers or direction. That said, I don't believe anyone prefers 'an answer' that later is deemed to be inaccurate and incorrect. As long as you intend to harvest the crop that remains, please know coverage is in place. When the plan and intent to harvest changes, we must immediately notify the crop company for the necessary steps to be taken. Stay tuned, when any information is release we will share the news.

China

It would appear that the Chinese have taken a step forward in good will gestures for US ag purchases. The beans purchased last week were anticipated, but the sww purchase was a surprise. Rumor of a major corn purchase, but nothing confirmed as of yet. Alfalfa sales have taken a noticeable turn positive as well. Now that the 70th anniversary is over, perhaps the posturing and rhetoric can be tabled in favor of productive talks when both the countries begin meetings this week - Monday and Tuesday trade deputies from China and the US meet, followed by trade principals meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.

Market Facilitation Payment  

To date, $14.02 billion of $28 billion has been paid out; $5.43 billion of trade aid 2, and $8.6 billion of MFP 1.

Markets 

USDA produced the first bullish report in recent memory. 2018 bean yields were initially overstated and reduced 1 bu/a in this report. Corn bushels evaporated with feed usage understated, some analysts suggest for the past 6 months or 3/19. Theory is if demand use must be increased in old year (2018 crop) to reflect current carry, demand use must be increased in the current year as well to account for under reported usage. Speculation is that the slight downward revision in both beans and corn paves the way for additional revisions in the next quarterly stocks report due in January, which is to true up the final 2019 row crop yield.

Current cash price in several locales of the corn belt have a higher price today than a month or more later - old crop corn is needed/wanted in the market place today and pricing reflects that.

INTL FCStone has increased their 2019 projected corn yield to 169.3 bu/a, citing their customer harvest surveys. Preliminary yield data chatter would not suggest an increase in the national corn yield average.

Lastly, ASF continues is march across the globe and many believe the impact is significantly underestimated. At present, only North and South America have not been impacted. Unfortunately with each passing day and spread of this disease, there's an increased likelihood that the US hog herd will be impacted. China insatiable appetite for pork, and correspondingly the other affected countries, cannot have the loss of this protein source and there not be an impact protein prices globally.
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/asfs-impact-global-pork-market-underestimated

Mental Health 

I think we all hear of or learn of instances that makes our hearts ache. Again this past week, I had a couple stories shared with me causes me to want to help someway, somehow. At present, that starts with a couple of informational links. If you or anyone you know needs to talk with someone about whatever, please help facilitate or share this information. All are worth more than a bank statement or commodity prices and yields.
https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health-resources#finding-therapy
and a couple of articles relating.
https://www.agweb.com/article/mental-health-and-stress-agricultural-producers
and
https://www.agweb.com/article/recognizing-mental-health-disorders

Weather 

A freeze will hit the upper plains again this week and the forecast has a significant cold front to impact the upper plains early next week, immature corn & soybeans will be impacted. Freezing temps could be as far south as Omaha, and east to Des Moines, IA and Madison, WI by this weekend.

Posted in Risk Management; Posted October 09, 2019 by Curtis Evanenko